EDURAN Spotlight
September 6, 2026. Lacy Hunt, a longtime proponent of the deflationary thesis, now views inflation as the greater risk. We analyze his argument—and explain where we disagree.
EDURAN Spotlight
Lacy Hunt, for decades the leading voice of the deflation thesis, now warns of structurally higher inflation and interest rates — driven by capital scarcity, deglobalization and runaway deficits. We put his argument in context and highlight a force we’d weigh at least as heavily: the interplay of technology and demographics.
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Q2 2026. “Ceasefire Rally”. A fragile ceasefire in the Gulf, a new, more hawkish Fed chair and an explosion in semiconductors drive the S&P 500 to its best quarter since 2020.
EDURAN Navigator
Second quarter of 2026. “Ceasefire rally.” A fragile ceasefire in the Gulf, a new, more restrictive Fed chair, and a surge in the semiconductor sector propel the S&P 500 to its best quarter since 2020.
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Q1 2026. “Hormuz Shock”. A US-Israeli military strike on Iran and the resulting oil price shock plunge markets into a sharp sector rotation away from technology and toward energy.
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H1 2025. “Tariff Shock”. A historic tariff day and a dollar crash defined the first half, while gold, European banks and the DAX gained from the capital flight out of the US.
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The Navigator provides insight into stock market events with an outlook. July 7, 2025 “Tariff Shock.” Within just a few weeks, the market experienced one of the sharpest declines and the strongest recoveries in recent history—triggered, exacerbated, and ultimately offset by the same source: Washington’s trade policy. As the first half of the year draws […]
EDURAN Spotlight
February 2, 2025. Capital Market Overview: Friendly equity markets and falling credit spreads, but with a simultaneous tightening of financing conditions.
EDURAN Spotlight
December 7, 2024. An interview in the Tagesanzeiger supplement “Future of Finance” on the topic of asset management with Thomas Dubach of Eduran AG.
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H1 2024. “Focus on Interest Rates”. Inflation seems defeated – or is it not? Interest rate cuts are expected and are driving prices up. Uncertainties remain.