{"id":5438,"date":"2017-09-01T08:24:25","date_gmt":"2017-09-01T08:24:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eduran.ch\/eduran-navigator-26\/"},"modified":"2025-11-10T08:25:49","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T08:25:49","slug":"eduran-navigator-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eduran.ch\/en\/eduran-navigator-26\/","title":{"rendered":"EDURAN Navigator"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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The Navigator provides insight into stock market events with an outlook.<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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28 August 2017<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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The markets have remained calm and consolidated for the most part over the summer. The correction that some market players had been expecting for some time has so far failed to materialize. <\/p>

For some months now, market technology has also been increasingly pointing to potential, at least temporary, market weakness. The bottom line is that we are probably at – or close to – an important point in terms of further market development. In recent years, stock markets have been driven primarily by central bank activities. With the US Fed’s turnaround in interest rate policy, which has already been publicly discussed and is in the process of being implemented, the current structure is coming under pressure, ceteris paribus. The increasingly robust economy should have a positive effect on share prices – in contrast to recent attempts, this time also in Europe and emerging markets. It will probably be a balancing act between normalizing, rising interest rates and a strengthening economy, with slight advantages in favour of growth. The central bankers will be wary of tightening the screw too sharply. <\/p>

There will be many stumbling blocks and a clear investment strategy will help you not to lose your bearings.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Fig. 1: The stock markets have developed similarly to the balance sheet total of the US Fed and other central banks (the US Fed began quantitative easing in November 2011). Many critical voices, also within the central bank committees, and the meagre results of the latest policy so far call for a reversal. Source: federalreserve.gov <\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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On average, companies’ latest earnings figures show an improved earnings situation and more stable business. 90% of S&P companies have reported above expectations for the first half of the year, with an average profit growth of around 10%. As published on various occasions, order books are well filled and consumer sentiment is back to the level seen before the global financial crisis around ten years ago. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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USA PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index), values above 50 indicate expansion. Source: Reuters <\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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As previously mentioned, the central banks (primarily the US Fed) have raised interest rates. This trend is likely to continue and it is to be expected that sooner or later other central banks (including the ECB) will (have to) jump on this bandwagon. If economic growth is in danger, interest rates will immediately come under pressure, as was recently the case with the sabre-rattling between North Korea and the USA. Gold rallied on the threat of conflict and broke through the important USD 1300 per ounce mark in August. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Fig3: Survey data on interest rate trends for 3-month Treasury Bills. Source: Reuters <\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Technically, the market is still in an uptrend, but with signs of a certain ageing weakness. Price rises in the index are being supported by fewer and fewer shares and the trend is losing strength (negative divergences). <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Fig4: Daily chart Dow Jones Industrial is approaching the forecast interim high, could correct somewhat based on this theory. Source: EDURAN AG <\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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From the perspective of the cycles, we are close to a possible reversal, or at least a correction. If you look into the past and study the trends, for example, there are striking similarities with the course of the S&P500 from the period up to 1987 to today. The presidential cycle and the decade pattern would also score points again in the event of an imminent correction. We see the possibility of an interim correction, but do not expect a turnaround until a later date. All in all, the stock markets are likely to rise again close to or above the known highs in the coming months. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Fig6: The German share index appears to have completed its consolidation soon and could reach new highs (negative divergences as a warning signal). Source: EDURAN AG <\/figcaption>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/figure>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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EDURAN AG is holding on to its equity position, but also has a good portion in cash. The proportion of fixed-income securities is likely to be increased again at the expense of cash and shares if the opportunity arises. <\/p>

In our opinion, the markets are at a stage where capital preservation should be prioritized over maximizing returns. Cash is seen as an option, also to be able to buy in the event of a correction. <\/p>

EDURAN AG
Thomas Dubach<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H1 2024. “Focus on Interest Rates”. Inflation seems defeated \u2013 or is it not? Interest rate cuts are expected and are driving prices up. 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