{"id":5164,"date":"2024-07-07T08:57:00","date_gmt":"2024-07-07T08:57:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eduran.ch\/eduran-navigator-5\/"},"modified":"2025-11-10T07:40:23","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T07:40:23","slug":"eduran-navigator-5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eduran.ch\/en\/eduran-navigator-5\/","title":{"rendered":"EDURAN Navigator"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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The Navigator provides insight into stock market events with an outlook.<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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July 7, 2024<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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“Focus on Interest Rates”. Inflation is weakening as expected. The additional COVID fiscal stimulus, driven by free-spending consumers, caused an inflationary surge, following supply shortages due to lockdowns. As expected, this effect dissipated over time. Nevertheless, inflation remains a topic. Combined with uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US elections and the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Israel\/Middle East, the second half of the year presents a mixed outlook. A sideways movement is likely, where growth stocks and value stocks could move in opposite directions. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Market review<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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The first half of the year started with euphoria, as markets bet on declining inflation and thus a series of interest rate cuts. However, according to official readings (statistics), the economy in the leading US market appeared to be performing better than expected, which prompted central bank(s) to take no action for the time being. The markets believe that a delay is not a cancellation. <\/p>

Overview of Selected Indices<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Source: Optuma<\/p>

Furthermore, technology stocks gave the markets an additional boost. AI made the chip manufacturer a market darling. While in 2023 it was the Magnificent Seven that lifted the markets, in 2024, a single stock is enough. Nvidia’s market capitalization reached over 3 billion USD in early June 2024, surpassing the gross domestic product of some European countries, including France and Italy. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Selected Sectors in Comparison \/ Source: Optuma<\/p>

Furthermore, gold advanced to new record highs. The important mark of around $2,050 was broken in the first quarter. The progress of the BRICS nations, where important states like China and Russia have been buying gold for a long time, along with the spiraling debts in the West, is driving demand. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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In focus<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe specter of inflation seems to be dissolving, and lower interest rates are a matter of time. This is the prominent opinion in the markets. Only the well-performing US economy seems to be throwing a wrench in the works. Central banks fear overheating or a renewed flare-up of inflation with interest rate cuts. What is postponed is not abandoned, and thus the expectation of imminent interest rate cuts is driving stock prices up \u2013 accompanied by positive earnings development in companies, especially in the US thanks to technology stocks, which also comes with higher valuations. The outlook for many local companies remains mixed, primarily due to numerous uncertainties (war in Ukraine and Israel\/Middle East, US elections, deglobalization, etc.). Interest rates are likely to be the decisive factor for further developments in the stock markets. Even if a recession cannot be ruled out, and with declining inflation, interest rates should fall, it is questionable whether we will return to the pre-Covid regime of near-zero interest rates. The debt burden has significantly increased again, and positive real interest rates seem to be a thorn in the side here. With investors one day hesitant to finance the deficit and debts, currencies are likely to continue to lose value. Real assets remain in demand. Here is a brief overview of US debt development over the past approximately 15 years since the financial crisis (the duration of half a career for many market participants!): The US Fed reduced its balance sheet by approximately 500 billion from September 2023 to March 2024, from around 8 trillion to 7.5 trillion (!). As a reminder: In 2008, before the great financial crisis, the balance sheet was just under 1 trillion USD (0.8 trillion) and reached an order of magnitude of 4.5 trillion USD in 2014. The balance sheet could never be reduced as originally stated or promised. In 2020, after Jerome Powell’s attempts to cut it from $3.8 trillion, it rose again due to the pandemic to around $9 trillion. Simultaneously, since the 2008\/09 financial crisis, the debt situation evolved from $10 trillion to $19 trillion in 2016, then to $23 trillion by 2019. With the pandemic, debts surged to $30 trillion and currently stand at over $33 trillion, with an annual increase of over $1 trillion! Real assets are thus in focus. Inflation will remain an issue, even if central bank(s) were to continue reducing their balance sheets. States will be tempted to fill gaps with additional spending. Only real assets offer a form of protection.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Outlook<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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With declining inflation, the market discounts interest rate cuts. After central banks rapidly hiked interest rates, the first signs of braking are appearing. Even if still subtle, the rhetoric indicates an imminent shift in monetary policy. The labor market, as well as \u2013 self-evidently \u2013 inflation figures, need to be monitored. Here, the pundits are likely divided into two camps: The central bank, for one, sees the possibility of controlling the economy, including inflation, through adjustments. The other half, so to speak, primarily views inflation as a psychological phenomenon, where one tends to react rather than act, and the former is usually too late. Nevertheless, deflationary or disinflationary pressure seems to be present. In Western industrialized nations, demographics play a role (the post-war generation is retiring), and with higher interest rates, it is becoming increasingly difficult to refinance the immense debts. China has just experienced a shock in the real estate market and is currently struggling more with deflation than with inflation. The political situation also implies that raw materials are likely to become more expensive. Western Europe has many people but few raw materials \u2013 Russia has few people and many raw materials. A new economic community is forming with the BRICS nations, and it will be more difficult for the industrialized Western states to access cheap raw materials. This, in turn, represents the counter-movement and drives prices up. For capital, a balanced portfolio offers the safest home in an increasingly uncertain world. The market bear continues to stalk through the woods; it was closely pursued, but has not yet been brought down.<\/p>

“It is in the nature of capitalism that outbreaks of madness occur periodically.” John Kenneth Galbraith<\/em><\/p>

EDURAN AG<\/p>

Thomas Dubach<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

H1 2024. “Focus on Interest Rates”. Inflation seems defeated \u2013 or is it not? Interest rate cuts are expected and are driving prices up. 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