{"id":5154,"date":"2025-02-02T19:20:00","date_gmt":"2025-02-02T19:20:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eduran.ch\/eduran-spotlight-2\/"},"modified":"2025-11-20T07:15:05","modified_gmt":"2025-11-20T07:15:05","slug":"eduran-spotlight-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eduran.ch\/en\/eduran-spotlight-2\/","title":{"rendered":"EDURAN Spotlight"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Spotlight sheds light on a topic of interest or current relevance.<\/h3>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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February 2, 2024<\/p>

Capital Market Report Q4 2024<\/strong><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Investor Optimism Despite Uncertainties
During the analysis period (September 7 \u2013 December 2, 2024), financial markets showed optimism. Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties, stable economic developments in the US led to rising equity markets and falling credit spreads. At the same time, a strong US dollar and higher government bond yields led to a tightening of financing conditions. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Development of Bond Markets
Government bond yields rose globally, with the US leading with particularly high increases. Despite interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, yields rose as economic development remained strong. <\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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  • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIn Europe, growth was weaker, which is why interest rate expectations remained lower.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
  • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tJapanese yields rose moderately as the Bank of Japan gradually normalized its loose monetary policy.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
  • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSpreads between government bonds and swaps became more negative, indicating high demand for capital for government financing.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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    Equity and Credit Markets: Risk Appetite Remains High
    Despite geopolitical risks, equity and credit markets remained strong:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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    • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tUS equities reached new highs after the elections.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIn China, announced stimulus measures led to short-term price gains.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCorporate bonds achieved tight spreads, indicating strong demand for riskier assets.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
    • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tAt the same time, the costs for hedging risks remained at an elevated level.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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      Tightening of Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets
      Emerging markets saw a deterioration of financial conditions:<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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      • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMost equity markets fell.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
      • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCurrencies depreciated against the US dollar.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
      • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tGovernment bond yields rose, particularly in Latin America.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
      • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tChina: Despite economic stimuli, growth concerns persisted.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
      • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCurrencies: Volatility increased, making carry trades less attractive.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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        Commodity Markets and Inflation Expectations<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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        • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe slowdown in China's growth put downward pressure on commodity prices, especially for agricultural commodities and metals.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
        • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tGold and silver initially rose as a hedge against geopolitical risks but depreciated again after the US elections.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
        • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tInflation expectations fell in most regions, although uncertainties about future monetary policy increased.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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          Implications for Monetary Policy<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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          • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCentral banks face challenges regarding \"terminal rates\" \u2013 the long-term interest rate level required to stabilize the economy.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
          • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tWhile the US continued to deliver positive growth surprises, inflation in Europe remained below expectations, making larger interest rate cuts there more likely.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
          • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tThe Bank of Japan remains on a cautious normalization path.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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            Fiscal Challenges and Government Debt<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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            • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tRising government debt led to negative swap spreads, as investors demand a higher premium for holding government bonds.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
            • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIn the US, France, and the UK, there are growing concerns regarding high deficits.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
            • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tIn Japan and the Eurozone, the reduction of central bank balance sheets (quantitative tightening) exacerbated market dislocations.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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              Conclusion and Outlook<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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              • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tMarkets remain optimistic despite global uncertainties, particularly in the US.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
              • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tCentral banks face the challenge of adapting monetary policy to a changing economic environment.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
              • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tEmerging markets are struggling with currency and capital outflows, while the strong US dollar and high yields exert additional pressure.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t
              • \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/path><\/svg>\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tFiscal risks and high debt could impact the stability of global financial markets in the coming months.<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/li>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                February 2, 2025. Capital Market Overview: Friendly equity markets and falling credit spreads, but with a simultaneous tightening of financing conditions. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5890,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39],"tags":[47,46,44,43,41,42,40,45],"class_list":["post-5154","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investments","tag-asset-management","tag-assets","tag-blog","tag-bonds","tag-investment-expert","tag-investments","tag-shares","tag-stock-market"],"yoast_head":"\nEDURAN Spotlight - Eduran AG<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.eduran.ch\/en\/eduran-spotlight-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"EDURAN Spotlight - Eduran AG\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"February 2, 2025. 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